Rainfall came in below average last week across most of Ivory Coast’s main cocoa-growing regions, and farmers are worried. The dry conditions are hitting the small pods that would be harvested next year during the September-to-February main crop, with some already falling from the trees. The reporting comes from Reuters, via CNBC Africa, on 21 September 2026.
Ivory Coast is the world’s top cocoa producer, and it is in the middle of its rainy season, which normally runs from April to mid-November and is usually marked by heavy, reliable rain. That reliability is the whole basis of the crop calendar.
What the farmers are saying
Farmers in the western town of Soubre reported no rain at all last week. Similar conditions were reported in Agboville in the south, Abengourou in the east, and Divo in the south, where rainfall was sharply below average or absent.
“If rains are not regular before mid-October, harvesting for the main crop will end in December,” said Kouassi Kouame, a farmer near Soubre. Farmers warned the situation could become alarming if the dry weather persists that long.
Why this matters beyond the farm gate
Cocoa is one of the few global commodities where a handful of West African countries set the tone for the entire world market. When the pods are under stress in Ivory Coast, chocolate makers, traders and, eventually, shoppers in Europe, Asia and the Americas all feel it through prices and supply.
It also lands on top of an already fragile farm economy. Cocoa farmers in the region have spent years pushing for a bigger share of the value of the chocolate their beans become, and a short crop can mean less income at exactly the moment costs are rising.
The honest read
One dry week is not a disaster. Weather reverses. What makes this worth watching is the timing: the pods in question are the ones that decide next year’s harvest, and the window to save them closes around mid-October. This is a forecast risk, not a confirmed shortage, and it should be read that way until the rain data says otherwise.
Sources
- Reuters via CNBC Africa, “Poor rains in Ivory Coast raise concerns over cocoa quality and supply, farmers say,” 21 September 2026 — https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/poor-rains-in-ivory-coast-raise-concerns-over-cocoa-quality-and-supply-farmers-say/
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