Trade between African countries is forecast to grow 10% in 2026 to about $230 billion, up from $210 billion in 2025, driven largely by accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The projection comes from a report published on 30 March 2026 and reported by Ecofin Agency.
The direction of travel matters as much as the number. For years, AfCFTA was described in the future tense: protocols signed, annexes negotiated, frameworks agreed. In 2026 the language has shifted to delivery.
From policy to practice
Analysts at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance noted in their March 2026 trade briefing that developments in February 2026 pointed to a “decisive implementation phase,” with attention moving from policy frameworks to practical delivery, sector-specific rules and stronger institutions.
Institutional support is following. The AfCFTA Secretariat and the International Trade Centre renewed their partnership with a memorandum of understanding signed on 18 May 2026, on the sidelines of Biashara Afrika 2026, aimed at accelerating implementation and helping smaller businesses actually use the agreement.
The hard parts
Tariffs were never the only barrier. Rules of origin, customs delays at borders, weak logistics, and a patchwork of standards still slow goods down. Payment infrastructure is another piece: moving money between African currencies remains costly, which is why regional payment systems are being pushed alongside the trade agreement.
For a small manufacturer or farmer, the promise of a larger market is real but conditional. It depends on being able to certify where a product comes from, get it across a border without losing days, and get paid without losing a large slice to transfer costs.
What to watch
Three things will show whether the $230 billion forecast holds: whether more countries actually implement the agreed tariff schedules, whether the dispute settlement mechanism gets used, and whether small businesses, not just large corporates, appear in the trade data. Until then, the growth is a projection, not a receipt.
Sources
- Ecofin Agency, “Intra-African Trade Set to Grow 10% in 2026 as AfCFTA Implementation Accelerates” — https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/1104-54591-intra-african-trade-set-to-grow-10-in-2026-as-afcfta-implementation-accelerates
- UCT Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, Trade Talks Africa Issue 8 — https://commerce.uct.ac.za/school-public-governance/articles/2026-03-12-clone-trade-talks-africa-policy-progress-and-people-behind-the-afcfta-issue-8
- International Trade Centre, AfCFTA Secretariat and ITC renew partnership — https://www.intracen.org/news-and-events/news/afcfta-secretariat-itc-renew-partnership-to-accelerate-implementation-of-african-continental-free-trade-area
Leave a Reply