An opinion piece built on published forecasts and reporting. Where figures are projections, we say so.
Eswatini’s weather service put out its seasonal outlook in early September, and the headline number is not a small one: the probability of El Nino conditions from October 2026 to March 2027 is above 90 percent. Separately, it puts the chance that this becomes a record-strength event, the strongest since 1950, at 69 percent. That is a likelihood, not a promise, but it is high enough to plan around.
The national forecast lines up with the international ones. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept an El Nino Advisory in force on 10 September, putting a very strong event above 90 percent for late 2026 and early 2027, with 75 percent odds of a historic one. The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Nino is near certain to last into February 2027. The Southern African Development Community’s climate outlook forum, held in Namibia in late August, favours below-normal rain from October to December across Eswatini, most of South Africa, Zimbabwe and southern Zambia.
Why the timing is the whole story
That window, October to December, is exactly when farmers plant maize, the staple crop across the region. A dry start pushes planting late and cuts yields months before anyone sees a harvest. Eswatini’s service expects erratic, below-average rain, with some areas near 472 millimetres and others under 200, and daytime highs near 35 degrees Celsius in the Lowveld in January and February.
The exposure is broad. An IPC analysis published on 31 July 2026 found that 70 percent of Eswatini’s smallholder farmers depend on rain-fed, subsistence agriculture. That same analysis counted 222,000 people in crisis or worse between June and September 2026, and projects 286,000, or 23 percent of those analysed, from October to March.
We have a recent comparison, and it is not comforting. In the 2023/24 El Nino, Eswatini’s maize crop fell about 12 percent to roughly 74,900 tonnes, against a national requirement of 140,943 tonnes. Food monitors later projected 304,000 people, about a quarter of the country, in crisis by early 2025.
The money problem
Drought response costs money the kingdom does not have lying around. Eswatini leans on customs revenue shared through the Southern African Customs Union. In the 2026/27 budget, those transfers were set at 11.4 billion lilangeni (about US$697 million), roughly 36 percent of total revenue and grants of 31.9 billion lilangeni (about US$1.95 billion). Customs income swings year to year, which leaves thin room for emergency spending.
There is one piece of good news. This season starts from a stronger base: South Africa has just harvested a record 17.4 million tonnes of maize, and regional cereal output ran near 10 percent above average. A better-stocked region can cushion a bad local crop, at least on price.
The honest read
Forecasts do not say where rain will fall inside the country, and El Nino years vary; 1997/98, a very strong event, brought near-normal rain in places. No official figure yet exists for what Eswatini has set aside for drought response this season, and the government has not said whether it will seek international assistance.
But the first hard signals arrive within weeks, not months. The number to watch is November rainfall, well before any official damage estimate appears. For anyone with crops, or with rural customers, this is a calendar item now, not a story for later.
Sources
- The Rio Times, “Eswatini El Nino Warning: Harvest Risk Ahead,” 24 September 2026, drawing on the Eswatini Meteorological Service (via Times of Eswatini), NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion of 10 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (3 September 2026), the SADC climate outlook forum, the IPC Eswatini acute food insecurity analysis of 31 July 2026, FEWS NET and the Eswatini Ministry of Finance budget — https://www.riotimesonline.com/eswatini-el-nino-warning-harvest-risk-2026
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